ZenithOptimedia: Global ad spend to fall 0.2 % in 2009

Televisionpoint.com Correspondent | Mumbai
ZenithOptimedia, a leading international media buyer, has slashed its global advertising spend forecasts for the second time in two months, predicting that world ad spend would now decline in 2009, by 0.2 per cent.

ZenithOptimedia last published its forecasts in early October when it said growth in 2009 would hit 4 per cent. The report said the credit problems had also slowed the advance of some developing markets, particularly in Asia Pacific and Central and Eastern Europe.

"It is now clear that the ad market is in the middle of a sharp downturn. Consumer and corporate confidence has been severely shaken, and the economic outlook is uncertain. Because of the general economic volatility there is greater degree of uncertainty than usual to our forecasts, and we are keeping them under monthly rather than quarterly review." the agency said.

Zenith said it now expected ad expenditure to decline 5.7 per cent in North America in 2009 and 1 per cent in Western Europe, much lower than its previous forecasts of 0.9 per cent growth and 2.6 per cent growth, respectively, published just two months ago.

"We have reduced our forecasts for ad expenditure growth in 2009 from 5.2 per cent to 3.2 per cent in Asia Pacific, and from 12.7 per cent to just 1.5 per cent in Central & Eastern Europe amid fears about the economic stability of markets like Hungary, Turkey and Ukraine," it said.

The company forecast that the global ad market would be "very tough" in the first quarter of 2009, with the second quarter unlikely to be much better, but it said it expected a mild recovery to begin in the third quarter.

It forecast global ad spend to grow 5.5 per cent in 2010 and by 5.8 per cent in 2011.Of the different sectors, Zenith said it still expected Internet advertising to grow by 18 per cent in 2009, as advertisers can monitor the results. It also said television was doing relatively well in the downturn.

"As happened in the previous two downturns (in 1991-1992 and 2001-2002) advertisers will continue to shift their expenditure from secondary media to television, being familiar with its power to build brands. Like cinema admissions, television viewing tends to rise in recessions because it offers escapism, and at a much lower price per hour to the consumer." the agency says.